On Dec. 31, Chinese Health officials inform the WHO about a cluster of 41 patients with a mysterious pneumonia. These would not have been the first cases of infection. Most people do not show extreme symptoms, and it can take a couple of weeks for the worst cases to need medical assistance. So I think November 23 is a reasonable guess for the latest possible date for patient zero, infection #1.
Most of the earliest cases would be very unlikely to be identified or controlled, let alone ‘hermetically sealed’ between country lines. Only a few subsets would have been significantly controlled. It is precisely because of exponential growth that I personally assume this virus covered the world months ago, and is not nearly as dangerous as infinitely repeated estimates.
For the sake of my thought experiment, this hypothetical uses a guess based on expert estimates of infections doubling maybe every 5 days.
( e.g. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext )
There are always large logic omissions at the start of wars, and this perspective has weighed heavily on me in resisting the popular narrative. I hope this experience adds massive hospital capacity expansion to the preexisting needs for fundamental healthcare reform. And every avoidable death is tragic indeed, so especially when dealing with massive scales of impact, it is vital to weigh both the pros and cons of actions and inactions.
I am simply shocked at how little data can convince modern “free” citizens to beg for [voluntary] martial law. If our society truly held science high, it should actually have more skepticism on most expert claims, not less. I think it is still human hubris to risk too many lives on our best models for most nested, chaotic non-linear systems, with more unknown variables than known. Sorry friends, I think we’re another 50 years before I might trust Technocracy over what representation is left in this “democratic republic”.
So when we get into the slippery slopes to martial law — either 1984 style or Brave New World style — then we’re talking about basic human freedoms of movement, gathering, and increasingly in the future… a choice of experimental vaccinations. Please stay calm, think thoroughly and skeptically about all the information projected at you, and remember how much informed consent matters to the world we want to live in. <3