Revisiting Imperial Risk Assessments of COVID-19

CDC Observational Data compared with approximations of Imperial College Model Projections from March 16 On March 16, 2020, the London “Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team” led by Neil Ferguson published their “Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce Continue reading Revisiting Imperial Risk Assessments of COVID-19

Risk Assessment Update May 10 on U.S. COVID-19 Deaths

The COVID-19 testing itself is very challenging to find certainty in. Given that most COVID-19 deaths have co-factors, the data on total reported deaths should be by far the most actionable. Data for more recent weeks is less complete. This Continue reading Risk Assessment Update May 10 on U.S. COVID-19 Deaths

Clade X Quotes: The Governors’ Pandemic

A couple things jumped out at me. Jamie Gorelick, playing U.S. Attorney General during Clade X pandemic exercise in May 2018… “So, Mr. Secretary you said in an earlier conversation that you thought it was a bad idea to be Continue reading Clade X Quotes: The Governors’ Pandemic

Pneumonia+Influenza+COVID-19 = Deaths Below Seasonal Average

As more experts expect pandemic “peaks” soon, I was curious about how this flu season compared to recent others in terms of deaths, since the mortality data is likely the most accurate out of all of the COVID-19 data. From Continue reading Pneumonia+Influenza+COVID-19 = Deaths Below Seasonal Average

Double-Edges of Exponential Scientism

If humans are “bad with exponential growth”, then yes, we can easily fail to detect ubiquitous real dangers in nature. But then we can also easily fail to detect false alarms from both: 1) Those who have studied and know how Continue reading Double-Edges of Exponential Scientism