Pneumonia+Influenza+COVID-19 = Deaths Below Seasonal Average

As more experts expect pandemic “peaks” soon, I was curious about how this flu season compared to recent others in terms of deaths, since the mortality data is likely the most accurate out of all of the COVID-19 data. From the weeks ending in 2/1/2020 to 4/4/20, the CDC reports weekly averages of 3,523 pneumonia deaths, 447 influenza deaths, 407 COVID-19 deaths, and 50,144 total deaths from all causes. So the CDC estimates for pneumonia and influenza and COVID-19 combined is an average of 4,377 deaths per week (over these 10 weeks).

The CDC also provides historical data on Deaths from Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) and all deaths via the National Center For Health Statistics (NCHS) Mortality Surveillance System. I filtered for weeks 4 through 13 of all the years fully available, 2010-2018, a similar 10-week period to the COVID-19 data. That data set shows a weekly averages of 4,334 pneumonia deaths, 262 influenza deaths, and 53,885 total deaths from all causes. So the CDC estimates for pneumonia and influenza combined is an average of 4,596 deaths per week, over these 10 weeks from 2010 through 2018.

Therefore, thus far, total deaths from pneumonia, influenza, and COVID-19 are still 5% below the recent average during The Great Pandemic of 2020.


Official Sources Are Needed To Debunk Official Narratives:

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/
Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of April 9, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically. Additional information will be added to this site as available.

Deaths from Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) and all deaths, by state and region, National Center For Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System
https://data.cdc.gov/Health-Statistics/Deaths-from-Pneumonia-and-Influenza-P-I-and-all-de/pp7x-dyj2


Update April 10: Someone on twitter shared this…
“Previous analysis of provisional data completeness from 2015 suggested that mortality data is approximately 27% complete within 2 weeks, 54% complete within 4 weeks, and at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (7). Pneumonia deaths are 26% complete within 2 weeks, 52% complete within 4 weeks, and 72% complete within 8 weeks (unpublished). Data timeliness has improved in recent years, and current timeliness is likely higher than published rates.”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVNQ84lUEAQerEt?format=jpg&name=large

If one doubles all of the total deaths during this 10-week period, then this period will end up being about 2 times the average for the period. That scenario is in the ballpark of two flu seasons ago.

Remember two flu seasons ago when we collectively decided to suspend some constitutional rights and put tens of millions out of work within weeks? I don’t.

I’m all for improving the resolution for the data that is tracked, and for increasingly more opt-in data for collective sense-making. And if there are such significant delays in data, then this Technocracy is evidently not ready for driving the ship during prime time. Scientists without data can only be so helpful.




Some other angles…

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#S6
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#OISmap
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm